The IMF improves its projections for Venezuela and estimates 4% growth for 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) substantially improved its economic estimates for Venezuela for this year and the next, compared to the forecasts of October 2025, although it still expects high inflation, as shown in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, published this Tuesday. The Fund expects Venezuelan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 4% in 2026, a stark contrast to the 3% decline estimated in its report six months ago. This would be the second most important growth in the American continent, only surpassed by Paraguay, which is projected to advance 4.2%, and above the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is expected to be 3.2% (unchanged from October). For 2027, the IMF calculates that the Venezuelan economy will expand a little more, to 6%, and if realized, it would be the highest in Latin America (which will grow by 2.7% overall). Both estimates represent a continuation of the country's economic recovery, after losing more than 70% of its GDP between 2014 and 2021. On the other hand, the Fund estimated economic growth at 1.5% for 2025, in contrast to the 8.7% published by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). However, it is higher than its October calculations when it projected a GDP variation of 0.5% for the end of that year. Venezuela cut off communication with the IMF more than two decades ago, and in recent years, the sending of information has been practically null, a situation that the organization sees as an obstacle to the precision of its projections. However, after the events of January 3rd, that outlook is about to change, and there are already conversations for the caretaker government of the country to be recognized, thereby restoring relations.
