El bloqueo estadounidense del petróleo venezolano aún no se siente en Cuba
El bloqueo de Estados Unidos al petróleo venezolano destinado a Cuba todavía no muestra efectos visibles en apagones ni en el suministro de combustibles, aunque analistas advierten que el impacto económico y social será severo en los próximos meses
TL;DR
- US blockade of Venezuelan oil to Cuba has no visible immediate impact on blackouts or fuel supply.
- Gas stations continue to operate with existing difficulties, including long queues and priority for dollar sales.
- Mobile apps for CubaPetróleo (Cupet) and queue management show no recent changes in service or wait times.
- No significant variations in power outages are attributable to the US blockade.
- Cuba was already facing an energy crisis due to thermoelectric plant failures and lack of foreign currency for fuel imports.
- Daily electricity deficit rates have remained high, largely due to issues with thermoelectric plants using domestic crude.
- Stopped generation engines due to lack of diesel and fuel oil, which are imported or refined from imported crude, could be impacted.
- Cuba needs approximately 110,000 barrels of oil daily, with about 40,000 from domestic wells and the rest imported.
- Independent estimates suggest Venezuela sent about 27,000 barrels daily in 2023, Russia sent about 6,000, and Mexico sent 6,000-12,000.
- Mexico will continue its shipments, but the loss of Venezuelan oil is a significant blow to the Cuban economy.
- Economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes estimates a 30% drop in fuel could lead to a 27% GDP decrease, sharp price increases, and reduced household consumption.
- The economist warns of an economic and humanitarian catastrophe, potentially worse than the post-Soviet period.