Domino effect: 2.6% growth in 2025 'forces' GDP forecasts for 2026 to be cut
Credicorp Capital reduced its GDP growth projection for 2026 to 2.5% Photo: iStock
TL;DR
- Colombia's GDP grew 2.6% in 2025, below market expectations and showing a deceleration in Q4.
- Public spending was the primary driver of the 2025 economy, followed by trade and public administration services.
- Internal demand grew 3.9%, with government spending up 7.1% and household consumption up 3.6%.
- Weakness in fixed investment is a shared concern between Credicorp Capital and Bancolombia.
- Credicorp Capital lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% due to factors including private investment, labor market outlook, and external income.
- Bancolombia maintains a 3.2% forecast for 2026 but notes a downward bias, emphasizing reliance on public spending and household consumption.