The dollar remains trapped between local uncertainty and mixed market signals: what's next for this currency?

For now, the dollar is expected to remain at low levels in the local market. Photo: Image generated with artificial intelligence.

The dollar remains trapped between local uncertainty and mixed market signals: what's next for this currency?

TL;DR

  • The Colombian dollar closed lower on March 17th but experienced upward behavior during the day, indicating persistent upward pressure.
  • Internal factors like fiscal uncertainty, presidential elections, and government financing operations, alongside global uncertainties, will influence USD/COP volatility.
  • The US Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rates, potentially resuming cuts in Q3 2026, and geopolitical events are key external influences.
  • Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices (Brent around $103/barrel) add pressure, while some investor repositioning towards Latin American currencies offers partial containment.
  • Technical analysis suggests a neutral RSI and a short-term appreciation trend from the MACD, indicating potential limited downward movements within a range.