Navigating Through the Fog
By David González Escobar - [email protected]
TL;DR
- Colombia's "Ley de Encuestas" (Law 2494 of 2025) imposes demanding statistical and logistical requirements on polling firms.
- The law increases sample sizes and costs, requires inclusion of remote municipalities, and limits disaggregated results, leading to less and potentially lower-quality information.
- GAD3, a previously accurate polling firm, has ceased operations in Colombia due to the new law's demands.
- Atlas Intel is highlighted for its accurate digital methodology, successful international track record, and ability to adapt to the new legal landscape.
- Atlas Intel's digital approach is seen as advantageous over traditional face-to-face polling, reducing biases.
- Current polling suggests Cepeda is leading but faces defeat in a second round against either Paloma or Abelardo, with Abelardo projected for second place.