Resilience in Times of Shock

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Resilience in Times of Shock

TL;DR

  • Emerging markets are tested and built in contexts of high global tension.
  • The intensification of the Middle East conflict has increased global economic uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation, and has varied impacts across countries.
  • Rising energy costs and supply chain fragility are affecting global markets, leading to oil price volatility and a stronger dollar.
  • Latin American economies, unlike some in Asia and Europe, show relative resilience due to being net energy and critical raw material exporters.
  • This resilience means that emerging markets should not be viewed as a single bloc, and selective investment strategies are crucial.
  • In fixed income, preference leans towards hard currency debt due to global volatility, while equity investments should focus on aligned sectors and countries.
  • Despite short-term challenges in a volatile and fragmented world, emerging markets also present long-term structural opportunities.