Elections 2026: Prediction market shows narrowing gaps between Cepeda, Valencia, and De la Espriella
Less than a month before the first-round elections in Colombia. Photo: Senate Press/ EL TIEMPO
TL;DR
- The prediction market for the 2026 Colombian presidential elections shows a recent adjustment, with reduced gaps between Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia.
- Iván Cepeda leads with 38% probability, but has seen a slight decrease, while Abelardo de la Espriella has risen to 35% after a significant increase.
- Paloma Valencia holds 31%, consolidating a tight race among the three candidates.
- Abelardo de la Espriella's seven-point rise is the most significant recent movement, coinciding with a slight loss of momentum for Cepeda.
- In the '2nd place (1st round)' market, de la Espriella leads with 58%, while in the 'Winner of the first round' market, Cepeda has a 90.6% probability.