El Niño 2026 Alerts: What Will Happen to Energy, Agriculture, and Prices in Colombia
Colombia had barely finished closing the wounds of the last El Niño when new warnings arrived. The phenomenon that hit the country for 12 months in 2024, although 30% less intense in oceanic terms than the one recorded between 2014 and 2016, paradoxically achieved air temperatures almost identical to those of that historic episode.
TL;DR
- Global climate models indicate a growing probability of El Niño developing in 2026, particularly between June and August.
- The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable, with potential impacts on crops like fique, cassava, oil palm, barley, and milk, as well as livestock due to water and pasture scarcity.
- A strong El Niño could increase food inflation by an average of 3.9 percentage points.
- Colombia's energy system, heavily reliant on hydroelectric power, is at risk due to potential low reservoir levels, which could lead to increased reliance on more expensive thermal generation and higher electricity bills.
- The country's energy system faces structural fragility, with projected deficits in firm energy supply for 2026 and 2027, increasing the risk of rationing if El Niño occurs with intensity.