If I Were Cepeda...

TL;DR

Colombia faces a fiscal deficit of at least 7%, potentially over 8% of GDP.
Government liquidity is low, with short-term debt at approximately 13.693% annual interest.
The country's credit rating has dropped to BB-.
Public debt increased from 804 trillion pesos in August 2022 to over 1,238 trillion pesos by February of the current year.
10 out of 24 million workers are self-employed, indicating a "rebusque" culture and low productivity.
Public administration jobs (3.1 million) outnumber industrial jobs (2.7 million).
Exports decreased from $57.115 billion four years ago to $50.199 billion in 2025, with a record trade deficit of $16.376 billion.
Ecopetrol's revenues fell by 25% and profits by 73% in 2025 compared to four years prior.
The 2027 budget proposal is 601 trillion pesos, a significant increase from 405 trillion in 2023, with a large portion allocated to functioning and debt payment over investment.
The author suggests that if Iván Cepeda wins, he will inherit an unsustainable economy requiring a brutal adjustment or a populist approach leading to crisis.

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