Subida del 23% del salario mínimo abriría un hueco fiscal de $5 billones en el sistema pensional, ¿de dónde saldrá la plata?
El alza del salario mínimo en Colombia siempre levanta discusiones cada año. Pero más allá de consignas, conviene mirar la evidencia completa. En Colo...
TL;DR
- A 23% minimum wage increase in Colombia for 2026 will add $6.7 trillion to Colpensiones' payroll.
- The national budget could face a deficit ranging from $4 trillion to $35 trillion due to the wage hike.
- The increase accelerates the depletion of the Minimum Pension Guarantee Fund (FGPM).
- Private pension funds will need over $525 million in reserves per affiliate.
- Approximately 10% of Colombian workers directly benefit from the minimum wage increase.
- Two out of three affiliates contributing to the system do so based on the minimum wage.
- About 52% of pensions in Colombia are equivalent to the minimum wage.
- The increase puts significant pressure on public finances and the sustainability of minimum pension schemes.
- The fiscal impact for 2026 alone is estimated to be around $5 trillion for Colpensiones.
- The cost to self-finance a minimum wage pension in the private system has risen from $420 million to $550 million.
- Higher minimum wage increases raise the cost of living and contribute to the exhaustion of the FGPM.
- The government's 2026 budget was calculated assuming a 7.1% minimum wage increase, not 23%.