El Niño could return in 2026: here's what is known
The ghost of a new El Niño phenomenon looms over 2026 with a 40% probability of development between May and July, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning this Tuesday, March 3.
TL;DR
- The WMO predicts a 40% chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026.
- The 2023/24 El Niño was one of the five most intense on record and contributed to 2024 global temperature records.
- Neutral conditions are expected to prevail until July, with a 60% probability.
- The possibility of El Niño forming increases as the year progresses, though long-term forecasts have growing uncertainty.
- These projections align with NOAA's estimates of a 50-60% chance of El Niño consolidating between July and September.
- The WMO expects a general increase in land surface temperatures between March and May.
- El Niño phenomena occur within the framework of climate change, intensifying extreme weather events and altering seasonal patterns.