What Mexico Has Gained and Lost in Its Economic Relationship with Chavista Venezuela
Venezuela went from being a trading partner of Mexico in the early 2000s to now representing 0.005% of national imports. The deterioration of the Venezuelan economy, exacerbated since 2013 with severe contractions in Venezuelan GDP, has affected the bilateral trade relationship in recent years, during which Mexican companies withdrew from the country due to the risk of non-payment and lack of legal certainty. Today, trade between the two countries has experienced a rebound in foreign direct investment coming to Mexico and in remittances that migrants send to their families in Venezuela, while political gestures of closeness are maintained.
TL;DR
- Venezuela's trade with Mexico has dramatically decreased from the early 2000s to represent only 0.005% of national imports.
- Deterioration of the Venezuelan economy since 2013, marked by severe GDP contractions, has negatively impacted bilateral trade.
- Mexican companies withdrew from Venezuela due to risk of non-payment and lack of legal certainty.
- There has been a recent rebound in foreign direct investment from Venezuela to Mexico, primarily in Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Yucatán, and Veracruz.
- Venezuelan migrants in Mexico have significantly increased remittances to their families in Venezuela, reaching record figures.
- Mexico has offered refuge to at least 106,000 Venezuelans, though exact numbers are uncertain.
- US sanctions, starting with Hugo Chávez and intensifying under Nicolás Maduro, have heavily impacted Venezuela's economy, particularly its oil sector.
- The IMF projected a 556% inflation increase for Venezuela in 2025, though accurate measurement is difficult due to government data secrecy.
- Venezuela continues to rely on oil sales as its primary income source, though it faces US restrictions.
- Mexico initially maintained oil shipments to Cuba but suspended them due to threats of tariffs from the US.