Reservoir levels drop from 80% to 63% in three months, increasing risks for the electric system due to the El Niño phenomenon

TL;DR

Reservoir levels in Colombia's SIN have decreased by approximately 17 percentage points in three months, from around 80% to 63%.
This decline is attributed to lower water contributions and atmospheric conditions that limit rainfall.
Climate forecasts suggest a growing probability of a moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon in the second half of the year.
El Niño conditions are historically associated with reduced water contributions and prolonged drought periods.
The current trajectory of reservoir levels is below the recommended 80% threshold needed to ensure reliable electricity supply for the 2026-2027 summer.
The electric system may face unprecedented operational levels, increasing pressure on reserves and thermal infrastructure.
Increased reliance on thermal power generation is expected, impacting fuel supply and logistics.
Scheduled maintenance on both hydraulic and thermal generation plants reduces the system's operational flexibility.
Sustained growth in electricity demand further strains the available capacity.

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