Banco de la República aumentaría la tasa de interés en la reunión de este viernes: ¿de cuánto sería el ajuste?
Las proyecciones apuntan a que la política monetaria que adopte el Emisor en el próximo encuentro tendrá una postura más contractiva, Foto: iStock
TL;DR
- The significant increase in the minimum wage is altering the expected disinflationary trajectory.
- Bancolombia's economic research forecasts a 50 basis point increase in the monetary policy interest rate, bringing it to 9.75%.
- Inflationary risks have re-emerged, with recent figures showing new obstacles to converging towards the target.
- The minimum wage has a direct impact on labor costs and amplifies inflationary pressures beyond its initial effect.
- Inflation expectations remain high, exceeding the central bank's target range.
- Corficolombia also projects a 50 basis point increase in the intervention rate, reaching 9.75%.
- The 23% minimum wage hike is seen as a turning point for 2026 inflation prospects, sharply increasing expectations.
- This wage increase raises the risk of second-round effects, with a historic monthly increase in 24-month expectations.