2026: Point of No Return?
By Luis Guillermo Vélez Álvarez - [email protected]
TL;DR
- Colombia is not facing immediate economic collapse, but the underlying conditions for productive systems are deteriorating.
- Economic atmosphere, crucial for normal functioning, is being contaminated by factors like protected private property, free prices, stable currency, and voluntary exchange.
- Signs of erosion include reduced private investment, stagnant productivity, and lower potential growth.
- Institutional risks, such as the progressive capture of checks and balances, increase risk premiums and shorten investment horizons.
- Loss of effective state control in productive regions, coupled with increased regulation on the formal economy, creates a dangerous asymmetry, pushing towards informality or illicit economies.
- The economic deterioration follows a sequence: polarization, selective interventions, falling investment, de-anchoring of monetary expectations, and structural stagnation.
- The 2026 presidential election is a potential point of no return, depending on the state of the institutional system.
- The real risk is not a spectacular disaster but decades of low growth, talent flight, and informal economy expansion.