Salario mínimo desbordado: hecatombe económica garantizada
Por Luis Guillermo Vélez Álvarez - [email protected]
TL;DR
- A 2022 study by the Banco de la República concluded that minimum wage increases negatively impact most economic variables, the labor market, inequality, and poverty reduction.
- The 23% minimum wage increase for 2026, set by Decree 1469 of 2025, significantly exceeds technical parameters, including inflation, productivity, union demands, and employer offers.
- The government justified the decree using an ILO "Living Wage" estimate, deviating from legal requirements to consider inflation, inflation targets, productivity, wage share, and GDP growth.
- The predicted consequences of the excessive wage hike include increased unemployment and informality, higher inflation due to labor costs, and a potential recession driven by the central bank raising interest rates.
- Public finances are expected to be negatively impacted by increased minimum pensions, indexed social transfers, and state payroll, potentially widening the primary deficit by 14 trillion pesos.
- The decree's illegality is considered evident, with a call for its provisional suspension to avert an economic catastrophe.