Forecasting and Prevention
Will anyone be sure that the climate event of February 1st will not happen again? Could anyone think that local climate-related phenomena are unrelated to what is happening globally? What is our capacity as a society, as individuals and families, to respond to these types of events? We can assume, for a certain tranquility or false confidence, that in this case the damage was to infrastructure being developed by the administration and therefore, the affected areas can be quickly restored and recovered. What is our society's capacity to foresee, to anticipate events that can be more catastrophic, widespread, and long-lasting, which scientists and research groups have been informing and alerting about for several years? Who can claim that a more widespread phenomenon like that of the first days of February will not completely devastate communities settled on beaches like Tierrabomba, La Boquilla, or Manzanillo del Mar? What is the institutional capacity to respond quickly and effectively to phenomena more complex than a heavy swell, for example, a hurricane like those we have seen on TV in the last 20 years? In this case, can it be stated with a certain degree of certainty that these events are possible but improbable?
TL;DR
- Society needs to seriously consider and act upon climate event warnings.
- There is doubt about the certainty that past climate events will not reoccur.
- The article questions the link between local and global climate phenomena.
- Societal capacity to respond to catastrophic, widespread, and long-lasting events is questioned.
- Vulnerability of communities on beaches like Tierrabomba, La Boquilla, and Manzanillo del Mar is highlighted.
- Institutional capacity to respond to complex phenomena like hurricanes is insufficient.
- The article raises concerns about social organization and mobilization for prevention and response.
- Informal tourism workers, estimated at 60% of the sector, lack the capacity to foresee or prevent potential climate impacts.
- The need for proactive measures is stressed, given that severe events are possible and probable.