Confidence rebounds in trade, industrial caution persists, and exporters adjust to the dollar
Imports totaled US$70,502 million in 2025, with a growth of 10.0%. Photo: iStock
TL;DR
- Trade confidence (ICCO) rose to 26.0% in January 2026, an increase attributed to better future expectations and lower inventory levels.
- Industrial confidence (ICI) dipped to -1.5% in January 2026, reflecting producer caution amid weak order volumes, though future production expectations are more optimistic.
- The export sector experienced a negative balance in the fourth quarter of 2025 regarding exported value and orders, with exchange rates cited as a major unfavorable factor.
- Despite a weak end to 2025, exporters report a positive shift in their 3-month outlook, with a slightly expansionary bias expected for the first quarter of 2026.
- Fedesarrollo's Business Opinion Survey (EOE) for January 2026 highlights these divergent trends across the trade, industry, and export sectors.