Distant War
The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel is a distant conflict, but it directly impacts Colombia, even without a single shot being fired on its territory. Most Colombians do not know where Isfahan is, nor is the reason for the war very clear, but the epicenter of the impact is oil. The partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's crude oil passes, generated the greatest energy shock in decades, potentially the largest in history. The result is evident: oil prices above $100 a barrel, but with Saudi Arabia warning that if the closure continues, prices could exceed $180.
TL;DR
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, has caused a major energy shock and driven oil prices above $100 a barrel.
- Higher oil prices increase Colombia's fiscal revenue and foreign exchange but also contribute to global inflation and higher food costs.
- A global slowdown, driven by the conflict, could reduce demand for Colombian exports, impacting the country's economic prospects.
- Colombia's energy sector has been weakened, risking self-exclusion in a world where energy is increasingly a source of power.
- Colombia should integrate into the Western Hemisphere's energy program, especially with the reactivation of Venezuela's energy sector.