Reservoir levels drop from 80% to 63% in three months, increasing risks for the electric system due to the El Niño phenomenon
Urrá Hydroelectric Photo: Urrá Hydroelectric Website
TL;DR
- Reservoir levels in Colombia's SIN have decreased by approximately 17 percentage points in three months, from around 80% to 63%.
- This decline is attributed to lower water contributions and atmospheric conditions that limit rainfall.
- Climate forecasts suggest a growing probability of a moderate to strong El Niño phenomenon in the second half of the year.
- El Niño conditions are historically associated with reduced water contributions and prolonged drought periods.
- The current trajectory of reservoir levels is below the recommended 80% threshold needed to ensure reliable electricity supply for the 2026-2027 summer.
- The electric system may face unprecedented operational levels, increasing pressure on reserves and thermal infrastructure.
- Increased reliance on thermal power generation is expected, impacting fuel supply and logistics.
- Scheduled maintenance on both hydraulic and thermal generation plants reduces the system's operational flexibility.
- Sustained growth in electricity demand further strains the available capacity.