El Impuesto Trump y la deportación amenazan salvavidas de las remesas en Centroamérica
El año 2026 se perfila como un punto de inflexión para el Triángulo Norte de Centroamérica y Nicaragua. Tras una década de crecimiento ininterrumpido, el flujo de remesas, que hoy sostiene hasta el 30% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de estas naciones, se enfrenta a un “triple choque” sin precedentes: la implementación de un impuesto selectivo del 1% a las transferencias, la amenaza de deportaciones masivas y el enfriamiento económico de EE. UU.
TL;DR
- The Triángulo Norte of Central America and Nicaragua are facing a complex economic outlook for 2026, with remittances, representing 20-30% of GDP, under threat.
- Three critical factors are expected to destabilize the region's macroeconomy: the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) with a tax on monetary transfers, mass deportations, and a cyclical cooling of the US labor market.
- The OBBBA, signed July 4, 2025, imposes a 1% excise tax specifically on cash, postal orders, or cashier's checks, while exempting digital transfers from US bank accounts.
- This tax structure disproportionately affects undocumented migrants operating in cash, with studies suggesting a 1.6% drop in remittance volume for every 1% increase in cost.
- Projections indicate a cumulative drop of 12.0% in remittances to El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua during 2025-2026, potentially leading to economic stagnation.
- Guatemala is particularly vulnerable due to a large portion of its migrants being indigenous communities with limited access to formal banking.
- Honduras, with remittances exceeding a quarter of its GDP, faces potential social instability due to deportations and reduced income.
- El Salvador's ability to use Bitcoin as a remittance alternative is hindered by potential IMF negotiations requiring limitations on crypto-asset promotion.
- Nicaragua, heavily reliant on remittances, faces macroeconomic instability and reduced fiscal revenue as the migratory wave reaches saturation.
- A structural shift towards informality is anticipated, with a resurgence of Hawala-like systems and the use of "mules" for physical cash transport, increasing money laundering risks.
- The most profound impact is expected to be humanitarian, with reduced remittances leading to less access to food and basic services for vulnerable families.