Think tanks support Carf's warnings about the Government's fiscal plan for 2026

TL;DR

Multiple think tanks, including Anif and the Fiscal Observatory of Pontifical Javeriana University, support Carf's concerns about the government's 2026 financial plan.
The government projects a total deficit of 5.1% of GDP and a primary deficit of 2.1% for 2026, an improvement from 2025.
Carf deems the government's plan "unconvincing" due to unspecified mechanisms for primary spending reduction.
Carf estimates a primary deficit of 3.7% of GDP for 2026 in its base scenario, implying a $32.1 trillion resource shortfall.
Potential fiscal pressures include pension reform, minimum wage increases, and labor reform effects, which could raise the primary deficit to 4.2% of GDP.
Think tanks argue that debt management does not replace structural fiscal adjustment and warn of potential interest rate hikes due to reduced public debt market liquidity.

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