Guarumo Survey: Cepeda stalls at 38% and loses momentum; Paloma would win in a second round
Iván Cepeda remains at his ceiling of 38% while Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella are in a technical tie with 22.8% and 23.9%, respectively...
TL;DR
- Iván Cepeda leads the Guarumo poll in the first round with 38% intention of vote.
- Paloma Valencia leads Iván Cepeda in a hypothetical second round with 44.6% to 40.1%.
- Abelardo de la Espriella is in a technical tie with Paloma Valencia at 22.8% and 23.9% respectively.
- In a second-round scenario between Cepeda and De la Espriella, they are in a technical tie with 40.6% and 40.4% respectively.
- Sergio Fajardo (2.5%), Claudia López (2.4%), and Santiago Botero (1.7%) trail significantly.
- The blank vote registers 7.2%, outperforming several candidates.
- Paloma Valencia has shown consistent growth since winning the Gran Consulta on March 8th.
- The survey was conducted between April 22nd and 29th, 2026, with 4,680 adults interviewed.