Los factores macroeconómicos que llevarían al Banco de la República a tener una política monetaria más contractiva

TL;DR

The Banco de la República's board will meet on January 30th to set monetary policy.
Most analysts (12 out of 19) predict a 50 basis point (pb) interest rate hike.
If the rate increases by 50 pb, it would reach 9.75%, a level not seen since November 2024.
Inflation is expected to remain above the central bank's target range and higher in 2026 than in 2025 due to a minimum wage increase.
This wage adjustment is anticipated to increase labor-intensive service prices, adding inflationary pressure.
Analysts forecast the policy interest rate to end 2026 at 11.0%, with gradual increases during the year.
The deteriorating fiscal scenario of the national government could require further interest rate adjustments.
The median inflation forecast for January is 5.4% annually.
Expected inflation for the end of 2026 is a median of 6.5%, higher than December 2025's 4.5%.
Inflation forecast for the end of 2027 is 5.0%, an increase from December 2026's 3.6%.

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