Dólar en Colombia: elecciones, deuda y decisiones de Hacienda; los tres riesgos que marcarán el paso en febrero
Por ahora el dólar seguiría en niveles bajos en el mercado local. Foto: Imagen generada con inteligencia artificial.
TL;DR
- The Colombian peso is not immune to volatility despite a weaker global dollar and appreciation in the year's start.
- Internal fiscal and political factors are key concerns for investors in the Colombian currency.
- The Ministry of Finance's decision to prioritize dollar cash in H1 2026 may end structural monetizations, reducing foreign exchange market liquidity.
- Recent public sector dollar purchases of nearly US$1.8 billion have increased upward pressure on the currency.
- Upcoming legislative elections and consultations in March could lead to currency repricing as markets assess economic and fiscal policy changes.
- High public debt remains a structural concern, limiting fiscal maneuverability and increasing the currency market's sensitivity to financing signals.
- Bancolombia forecasts the dollar to trade between $3,580 and $3,750 in the short term, acknowledging both external support and internal risks.