Cómo cambiaría el mercado petrolero en caso de que EE. UU. asuma el control de la producción de crudo venezolano
La investigación insiste en que eso aumentaría la influencia de EE.UU. sobre la formación del precio del Brent Foto: Archivo El Tiempo
TL;DR
- A US strategy may structurally alter the global oil market, affecting OPEC and Venezuela.
- In the medium to long term, US influence on Brent price formation could increase, trending towards lower levels than OPEC's traditional policy.
- This scenario would exert downward pressure on crude prices as the US pursues access to Venezuelan oil assets.
- Venezuela holds about 20% of global proven oil reserves, the largest in the world.
- The US, despite leading production, holds about 3% of global reserves.
- If Venezuela leaves OPEC and the US gains control of its oil assets, OPEC's share could drop significantly, with the US+Venezuela combination becoming a direct competitor.
- There is bipartisan consensus in the US for low fuel prices, reducing internal opposition to acquiring Venezuelan assets.
- With US support, Venezuela's production could potentially increase dramatically, rivaling OPEC's total output.
- This scenario would significantly increase US market power and its ability to influence global price formation amid an oversupply.