The minimum wage increase will be felt throughout the year and would take inflation to 6.5% by the end of 2026
Corficolombiana projects that the minimum wage increase will leave inflation at 6.5% for 2026. Photo: Courtesy: Corficolombiana.
TL;DR
- Corficolombiana indicates the 23% minimum wage increase is affecting and will continue to affect inflation in Colombia through 2026.
- The Consumer Price Index (IPC) is projected to reach 5.5% annually by March, driven by services and food prices.
- Food prices, particularly perishables and processed items, are expected to increase due to seasonality and adjustments.
- Services inflation is also projected to rise, influenced by meals away from home, services indexed to the minimum wage, and education.
- The annual inflation rate without food and regulated items is expected to accelerate.
- Rental prices are projected to see an annual increase, while goods inflation is expected to accelerate slightly, driven by pharmaceuticals, cleaning products, and beer.
- The report highlights that the minimum wage increase has already generated an additional 45 basis points of inflation in the first two months of the year.
- A previous scenario with a 12% minimum wage increase projected 4.8% inflation for March and 4.9% for December; the 23% increase changes this outlook to 5.5% for March and potentially 6.5% for December.
- The projected 6.5% inflation for December 2026 is higher than the 5.8% forecast by the National Government.