La economía da señales de mejora, pero el ruido no cede: incertidumbre y elecciones mantienen preocupaciones
Los mercados siguen de cerca el comportamiento de la inflación y las tasas de interés. Foto: Imagen generada con Inteligencia Artificial - ChatGPT
TL;DR
- The Economic Perception Index (IPE) for Q4 2025 shows a moderated pessimism in Colombia's economic outlook.
- Despite improvement, the index remains in negative territory, distant from the 2011-2019 average.
- Uncertainty persists regarding fiscal, inflationary, and political factors.
- The IPE is composed of sentiment (80%) and volatility of expectations (20%), with sentiment driving the recent improvement.
- The upcoming presidential elections are expected to increase uncertainty due to potential changes in economic policy.
- A persistent inflationary process and rising interest rates are anticipated for 2026, potentially limiting consumption and investment.
- The increase in the minimum wage for 2026 has raised concerns about inflation, monetary policy, and fiscal impacts.
- Global factors, such as geopolitical conflicts, could further increase volatility.
- Colombia ended 2025 with a less negative perception, but macro and political noise has not subsided.