Carne y leche: mundos y riesgos diferentes
La semana anterior advertí del desastroso manejo de las finanzas públicas, que también afecta la ganadería, eslabón primario de las cadenas cárnica y láctea, estratégicas para la seguridad alimentaria y la diversificación exportadora. Sin embargo, la carne y la leche son mundos con riesgos diferentes, hoy agravados por las medidas económicas del Gobierno.
TL;DR
- Colombian beef and milk industries are strategic for food security and export diversification.
- The beef sector has export potential, with a peak in 2022, and new opportunities in the Chinese market starting in 2024.
- A depreciated dollar, caused by public debt monetization and other factors, neutralizes some of the beef sector's export advantages.
- The milk sector faces significant threats from the US free trade agreement, which will allow unlimited, tariff-free imports of dairy products from 2026.
- Colombia is not competitive in powdered milk, a commodity impacted by the US trade deal.
- The combination of free trade and a devalued dollar could lead to import surges, decreased collection, depressed internal prices, and increased costs due to inflation and minimum wage hikes.
- Estimates suggest over 150,000 rural jobs could be lost and 70,000 small dairy farms might cease production.
- Colombia has the 12th largest cattle herd globally with 30 million animals, producing over a million tons of meat and 7.5 billion liters of milk annually.
- The government has remained silent on these issues.
- There is a request for the government to include the dairy issue in the Trump - Petro meeting.