Deferred Inflation
Director of Portafolio 03/10/2026 17:23 Updated: 03/10/2026 17:23
TL;DR
- February's monthly inflation was 1.08%, below analyst expectations.
- The decrease was primarily due to atypical price drops in gasoline and electricity.
- Gasoline prices fell by 6.13% in the first two months, and electricity prices dropped by 1.23% monthly and 4.91% annually in February.
- This energy price behavior is a temporary compensation, not a structural inflation correction.
- An unexpected and large minimum wage increase continues to exert inflationary pressure on labor-intensive sectors.
- Global factors like the conflict in Iran could lead to increased energy prices, reversing the current trend.
- Inflation expectations for December 2026 remain high (6.2%-6.5%), far above the central bank's target.
- The market anticipates high interest rates to persist, leading to continued expensive credit and affecting investment and competitiveness.