health
May 3, 2026
The Next Niño
If experts' forecasts are not exaggerated, the next El Niño phenomenon will not be a simple dry season, but a structural challenge.
TL;DR
- Colombia relies on 70% hydroelectricity, making it vulnerable to dry seasons caused by El Niño.
- A severe dry season in 2026 could deplete hydroelectric reservoirs, necessitating reliance on thermal power plants.
- Thermal power's reliance on gas or coal, coupled with logistics, will likely increase energy tariffs.
- The Caribbean region is particularly at risk for crop failures (yuca, ñame) and livestock mortality due to lack of water and pasture.
- Municipalities in the Caribbean, dependent on artisanal wells and water trucks, face unsustainable costs and potential increases in gastrointestinal diseases.
- Cartagena faces challenges from reduced flow in the Magdalena River, potentially affecting the Canal del Dique and increasing salinity in water sources.
- Reduced flow in the Canal del Dique can lead to seawater intrusion, impacting water potabilization processes and requiring emergency dredging.
- Experts urge preventive risk management and investment in predictive dredging and energy sovereignty for 2027.
- Authorities in Cartagena and Bolívar are advised to coordinate preventive measures, including dredging.