Los aspectos económicos que marcarían la agenda colombiana en 2026 y que más alerta generan
La economía colombiana enfrenta un año retador. Foto: Imagen generada con Inteligencia Artificial - ChatGPT
TL;DR
- Colombia's GDP grew by 2.8% from January to September 2025, which is positive but insufficient for closing gaps and sustaining formal employment without increased investment and productivity.
- The projected fiscal deficit for 2025 is 7.1% of GDP, increasing debt costs, reducing social investment margins, and heightening vulnerability.
- Rising costs and increasing informality lead to lower tax collection and contributions to health and pension funds, resulting in higher deficits and potentially painful adjustments.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has stagnated, with $9.16 billion in the first nine months of 2025 compared to $9.618 billion in the same period of 2024, due to a lack of clear and stable rules.
- The national unemployment rate was 7% in November 2025, but high informality means it does not always translate into quality employment, productivity, and well-being.
- A 23% increase in the minimum wage and higher labor costs, without productivity gains or relief for SMEs, could lead to price increases, business closures, and a shift towards informality.
- Informality stood at 55% between July and September 2025, indicating that over half the workforce lacks protection and contributes little to productivity.
- Annual inflation was 5.10% in December 2025, far from the 3% target, keeping credit costs high.
- Colombia's country risk has increased, with S&P lowering its outlook to BB (negative) and Fitch to BB, raising borrowing costs.
- Security is directly linked to competitiveness, impacting tourism, logistics, business operations, and the country's image.