“Las tasas de interés del 3% o 4% no volverán en 2026, ni en 2027, ni siquiera en 2028”: presidente de Anif

TL;DR

The central bank raised interest rates due to persistent inflation and expectations of further price increases influenced by the minimum wage hike.
Interest rates could reach 11% or 12%, as current levels are not seen as restrictive enough given inflation exceeding 5%.
Low interest rates (2-4%) are unlikely before 2026-2028, requiring inflation to reach the 3% target and fiscal adjustments.
Higher interest rates will eventually increase costs for consumer, personal, and mortgage loans, while improving savings rates.
The minimum wage increase is expected to impact inflation, particularly in services, and may affect employment due to potential cost adjustments by businesses.
Inflation projections for the year have been revised upwards, with estimates ranging from 5.8% to over 6%.
De-indexing social interest housing from the minimum wage could make housing supply unviable due to rising construction costs.
Restricting pension fund investments abroad could lead to a significant drop in long-term savings.
Government debt operations in Swiss francs carry exchange rate risk if the franc appreciates.
Trade disputes, like the one with Ecuador, negatively impact both countries and specific export sectors.

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