Execution of the 2025 Budget Expenditure Increased, But Fiscal Space Reduced in a High Deficit Year

The fiscal crisis has created major challenges for budget execution. Photo: Image generated with artificial intelligence.

Execution of the 2025 Budget Expenditure Increased, But Fiscal Space Reduced in a High Deficit Year

TL;DR

  • The 2025 National General Budget (PGN) execution showed recovery amidst a demanding fiscal context.
  • Despite faster spending, high deficits and financing restrictions reduced fiscal space and increased pressure on public finances.
  • The fiscal balance worsened in 2024 and is projected to remain in deficit in 2025, impacting budget decisions.
  • Budget deferrals reduced the PGN's effective amount by $16.2 trillion, mainly from functioning and investment.
  • Public investment was disproportionately affected by fiscal adjustments, decreasing by 7.8% from the initial appropriation.
  • Overall execution of obligations (excluding debt service) improved in 2025 but remained below the historical average.
  • Investment execution closed at 64.2%, significantly below its historical average, indicating substantial carry-over into 2026.
  • Sectoral execution varied widely, with Education, Health, and Science leading, while the Presidency and Transport lagged significantly.
  • The budget lag, or floating debt, decreased but remains elevated compared to recent years, impacting future execution capacity.
  • Increased primary spending execution in a period demanding austerity reduced available fiscal space, potentially pressuring the fiscal result.