energy
April 10, 2026
Energy associations warn of blackout risk and ask to activate thermal plants earlier due to high probability of El Niño
The ghost of a blackout grows ever stronger. Photo: Courtesy: Istock
TL;DR
- Colombia faces structural vulnerability in energy security with an 80% chance of El Niño and no energy surplus.
- Current generation capacity is at a strict balance with projected demand, leaving no buffer for reduced hydroelectricity.
- The system lacks energy reserves, unlike previous climate events, necessitating reliance on thermal power, especially coal.
- A lack of expansion in backup infrastructure increases exposure to climate volatility.
- Hydroelectric generation is projected to drop, activating the need for thermal plants in daily dispatch.
- The coal sector can meet potential demand, with production capacity doubling the estimated requirement for a significant El Niño event.
- Coal-fired power plants offer a cost-effective backup and are crucial for grid stability and wholesale electricity price formation.
- The high cost of electricity during the last El Niño event ($1,600/kWh vs. $900/kWh normally) highlights the economic impact.
- Industry associations urge the government to implement incentives for energy consumption reduction proactively.