Old before rich
For decades, economists spoke of the Colombian demographic bonus as an almost automatic promise: a young pyramid, a growing workforce, a country that sooner or later would achieve development. That promise is over.
TL;DR
- Colombia's fertility rate has fallen significantly, and there is a massive emigration of professionals and families.
- Economic growth must now come from increased productivity and investment, not a growing workforce.
- Low total factor productivity growth and a large gap in hourly worker output compared to the US indicate a productivity problem.
- Deteriorating security, unpredictable economic reforms, and an adversarial stance towards the private sector deter investment.
- Colombia invests very little in research and development, putting it behind in the global AI-driven economy.
- Key actions needed include establishing legal security for investment, simplifying taxes, promoting digital infrastructure and AI skills, opening the economy, and creating a smaller, more efficient state.