economy
May 7, 2026
From the 'One-Child Policy' to the Condom Tax: Why Isn't China Having More Babies?
China is undergoing one of the most profound demographic transformations in its recent history. In 2025, the country registered its lowest birth rate since official records exist, while the total population has decreased for the fourth consecutive year...
TL;DR
- China's birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 inhabitants in 2025, with births insufficient to offset deaths.
- The total population decreased by 3.39 million in 2025, continuing a downward trend.
- An aging population (23% over 60 in 2025) threatens China's economy by reducing the labor force and increasing social welfare costs.
- Fertility rates began declining in the 1960s, influenced by urbanization, education, cultural changes, and the high cost of child-rearing, not solely the 'one-child policy'.
- China imposed taxes on condoms and contraceptives starting January 1, 2026, as part of efforts to encourage births.
- Government pro-natalist policies, including financial support and cultural campaigns, have shown limited success in reversing the fertility decline.
- Experts suggest that aggressive pro-natalist policies may only shift birth timing rather than increase overall birth numbers.