Dólar en Colombia: elecciones, deuda y decisiones de Hacienda; los tres riesgos que marcarán el paso en febrero

TL;DR

The Colombian peso is not immune to volatility despite a weaker global dollar and appreciation in the year's start.
Internal fiscal and political factors are key concerns for investors in the Colombian currency.
The Ministry of Finance's decision to prioritize dollar cash in H1 2026 may end structural monetizations, reducing foreign exchange market liquidity.
Recent public sector dollar purchases of nearly US$1.8 billion have increased upward pressure on the currency.
Upcoming legislative elections and consultations in March could lead to currency repricing as markets assess economic and fiscal policy changes.
High public debt remains a structural concern, limiting fiscal maneuverability and increasing the currency market's sensitivity to financing signals.
Bancolombia forecasts the dollar to trade between $3,580 and $3,750 in the short term, acknowledging both external support and internal risks.

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