politics
May 7, 2026
Three Weeks To Go
A few days ago, in the middle of a conversation about the final stretch of the campaign, someone told me bluntly: it's not enough to have the best candidate, you need to have the campaign capable of winning. The phrase may sound obvious, but at this moment, it's everything.
TL;DR
- The election has entered its final, decisive phase with three weeks remaining.
- Polls show Abelardo around 25%, Paloma slightly below, competing for second place, and the incumbent candidate leading the first round with government support.
- Paloma's strengths include preparation, clarity, character, and consistency, but connection is now paramount.
- The campaign must consolidate its historical right-wing base and appeal to centrist voters, the undecided, and those disillusioned with the current government's direction.
- A key challenge is simultaneously consolidating the base and expanding outward in a short timeframe.
- Avoiding destructive confrontation with Abelardo is crucial, as the winner of the second round will need the opponent's voters.
- The election is framed as a choice between continuing a government model that has weakened trust and created economic uncertainty, or choosing a different direction.
- The final three weeks are for transformation: adjusting the message, broadening the conversation, connecting with new voters, and projecting a clear path to victory.
- Success in politics depends on convincing voters in time, and in this election, reaching the second round is not enough; the ability to build a majority to change the country's course is essential.